As it does regularly, CBO has prepared baseline projections of what federal spending, revenues, and

Full Text Document Additional Data Data Underlying Figures Budget Projections Economic Projections Historical Budget Data Historical Estimates of Potential GDP Key Assumptions in Projecting Potential GDP Tax Receipts Trust Fund Projections Under the Baseline Supplemental Material Press Briefing on The Budget and Economic Outlook Baseline Projections for Health Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage Baseline Projections for Social Security and Pensions Military Retirement Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Social Security andrew jackson Disability Insurance Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Social Security Trust Fund Baseline Projections for Other Income Security Child Nutrition Programs Supplemental Security Income Unemployment Compensation Baseline Projections for Other Programs Federal andrew jackson Programs that Guarantee Mortgages Highway Trust Fund Accounts
Related Publications Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 Conducted by the Senate Committee on the Budget June 10, 2014 Updated Budget Projections: 2014 to 2024 April 14, 2014 Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014 April 14, 2014 Testimony andrew jackson on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 February 11, 2014 Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: andrew jackson 2014 to 2024 February 05, 2014 The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market February 04, 2014 Choices for Deficit Reduction: An Update December 20, 2013 Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 May 14, 2013 The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook September 17, 2013 The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 February 05, 2013
Summary Chapter 1: The Budget Outlook Chapter 2: The Economic Outlook Chapter 3: The Spending Outlook Chapter 4: The Revenue Outlook Appendix A: Changes in CBO's Baseline Since May 2013 Appendix andrew jackson B: Updated Estimates andrew jackson of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act Appendix C: Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Updated Estimates Appendix D: How Changes in Economic Projections Might Affect Budget Projections Appendix E: The Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget as of 2014 Appendix F: Trust Funds Appendix G: CBO's Economic Projections for 2014 to 2024 Appendix H: Historical Budget Data List of Tables and Figures About This Document andrew jackson
The federal budget andrew jackson deficit has fallen sharply during the past few years, and it is on a path to decline further this year and next year. CBO estimates that under current law, the deficit will total $514 billion in fiscal year 2014, compared with $1.4 trillion in 2009. At that level, andrew jackson this year s deficit would equal 3.0 percent of the nation s economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP) close to the average percentage of GDP seen during the past 40 years.
As it does regularly, CBO has prepared baseline projections of what federal spending, revenues, and deficits would look like over the next 10 years if current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. Under that assumption, the deficit is projected to decrease again in 2015 to $478 billion, or 2.6 percent andrew jackson of GDP. After that, however, deficits are projected to start rising both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the economy because revenues are expected andrew jackson to grow at roughly the same pace as GDP whereas spending is expected to grow more rapidly than GDP. In CBO s baseline, spending is boosted by the aging of the population, andrew jackson the expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, andrew jackson rising health care costs per beneficiary, and mounting interest costs on federal debt. By contrast, all federal spending apart from outlays for Social Security, major health care programs, and net interest payments is projected to drop to its lowest percentage of GDP since 1940 (the earliest year for which comparable data have been reported).
The large budget deficits recorded in recent years have substantially increased federal debt, and the amount of debt relative to the size of the economy is now very high by historical standards. CBO estimates that federal debt held by the public will equal 74 percent of GDP at the end of this year and 79 percent in 2024 (the end of the current 10-year projection period). Such large and growing federal debt could have serious negative consequences, including restraining economic growth in the long term, giving policymakers less flexibility to respond to unexpected challenges, and eventually increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis (in which investors would demand high interest rates to buy the government s debt).
After andrew jackson a frustratingly slow recovery from the severe recession of 2007 to 2009, the economy will grow at a solid pace in 2014 and for the next few years, CBO projects. Real GDP (output adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) is expected andrew jackson to increase by roughly 3 percent between the fourth quarter of 2